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Multi-parameter Uncertainty Analysis of a Bifurcation Point : Volume 13, Issue 5 (10/10/2006)

By Knopf, B.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004019788
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 10
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Multi-parameter Uncertainty Analysis of a Bifurcation Point : Volume 13, Issue 5 (10/10/2006)  
Author: Knopf, B.
Volume: Vol. 13, Issue 5
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2006
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

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Flechsig, M., Zickfeld, K., & Knopf, B. (2006). Multi-parameter Uncertainty Analysis of a Bifurcation Point : Volume 13, Issue 5 (10/10/2006). Retrieved from http://worldebookfair.org/


Description
Description: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany. Parameter uncertainty analysis of climate models has become a standard approach for model validation and testing their sensitivity. Here we present a novel approach that allows one to estimate the robustness of a bifurcation point in a multi-parameter space. In this study we investigate a box model of the Indian summer monsoon that exhibits a saddle-node bifurcation against those parameters that govern the heat balance of the system. The bifurcation brings about a change from a wet summer monsoon regime to a regime that is characterised by low precipitation. To analyse the robustness of the bifurcation point itself and its location in parameter space, we perform a multi-parameter uncertainty analysis by applying qualitative, Monte Carlo and deterministic methods that are provided by a multi-run simulation environment.

Our results show that the occurrence of the bifurcation point is robust over a wide range of parameter values. The position of the bifurcation, however, is found to be sensitive on these specific parameter choices.

Summary
Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point

Excerpt
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