World Library  

Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Multi-parameter Uncertainty Analysis of a Bifurcation Point : Volume 13, Issue 5 (10/10/2006)

By Knopf, B.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0004019788
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 10
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Multi-parameter Uncertainty Analysis of a Bifurcation Point : Volume 13, Issue 5 (10/10/2006)  
Author: Knopf, B.
Volume: Vol. 13, Issue 5
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


APA MLA Chicago

Flechsig, M., Zickfeld, K., & Knopf, B. (2006). Multi-parameter Uncertainty Analysis of a Bifurcation Point : Volume 13, Issue 5 (10/10/2006). Retrieved from

Description: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany. Parameter uncertainty analysis of climate models has become a standard approach for model validation and testing their sensitivity. Here we present a novel approach that allows one to estimate the robustness of a bifurcation point in a multi-parameter space. In this study we investigate a box model of the Indian summer monsoon that exhibits a saddle-node bifurcation against those parameters that govern the heat balance of the system. The bifurcation brings about a change from a wet summer monsoon regime to a regime that is characterised by low precipitation. To analyse the robustness of the bifurcation point itself and its location in parameter space, we perform a multi-parameter uncertainty analysis by applying qualitative, Monte Carlo and deterministic methods that are provided by a multi-run simulation environment.

Our results show that the occurrence of the bifurcation point is robust over a wide range of parameter values. The position of the bifurcation, however, is found to be sensitive on these specific parameter choices.

Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point

MODIS:, 2006.; Budyko, M.: The Earth's climate, vol. 29 of \em International Geophysics Series\/, Academic Press, New York, 1982.; Burns, S., Fleitmann, D., Matter, A., Kramers, J., and Al-Subbary, A.: Indian Ocean climate and an absolute chronology over Dansgaard/Oeschger events 9 to 13, Science, 301, 1365–1367, 2003.; Campolongo, F., Cariboni, J., Saltelli, A., and Schoutens, W.: Enhancing the Morris Method, in Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output. Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output (SAMO 2004), pp. 369–379, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, 2005.; Dickinson, R. E., Henderson-Sellers, A., Kennedy, P., and Wilson, M.: Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) for the NCAR Community Climate Model, Tech. rep., NCAR/TN-275+STR, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, 1986.; Doedel, E. J.: AUTO: A program for the automatic bifurcation analysis of autonomous systems, in: Proceedings of the 10th Manitoba Conference on Numerical Mathematics and Computing, pp. 265–284, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada, 1981.; Flechsig, M., Böhm, U., Nocke, T., and Rachimow, C.: Techniques for Quality Assurance of Models in a Multi-Run Simulation Environment, in: Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output (SAMO 2004), edited by K. M. Hanson and F. M. Hemez, pp. 297–230, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, USA, 2005.; Forest, C., Stone, P., Sokolov, A., Allen, M., and Webster, M.: Quantifying Uncertainties in Climate System Properties with the Use of Recent Climate Observations, Science, 295, 113–117, 2002.; Gross, T. and Feudel, U.: Generalized models as a universal approach to the analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems, Physical Review E, 73, 016 205, 2006.; Gupta, A., Anderson, D., and Overpeck, J.: Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean, Nature, 421, 354–357, 2003.; Hansen, J., Russell, G., Rind, D., Stone, P., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R., and Travis, L.: Efficient three-dimensional global models for climate studies: Models I and II, Mon. Wea. Rev., 11, 609–662, 1986.; Held, H. and Kleinen, T.: Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L23 207, doi:10.1029/2004GL020972, 2004.; Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NMC/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471, data available at, 1996.; Knutti, R., Stocker, T. F., Joos, F., and Plattner, G.-K.: Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles, Nature, 416, 719–723, 2002.; Kripalani, R. H., Kulkarni, A., Sabade, S. S., and Khandekar, M. L.: Indian Monsoon Variability in a Global Warming Scenario, Natural Hazards, 2003.; Kumar Mittal, A., Dwivedi, S., and Chandra Pandey, A.: Bifurcation analysis of a paradigmatic model of monsoon prediction, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 12, 707–715, 2005.; Kuznetsov, Y. A., Levitin, V. V., and Skovoroda, A.: Continuation of stationary solutions to evolution problems in CONTENT, Tech. Rep. AM-R9611, Centrum voor Wiskunde en Informatica, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 1997.; Longworth, H., Marotzke, J., and Stocker, T. F.: Ocean Gyres and Abrupt Change in the Thermohaline Circulation: A Conceptual Analysis, J. Clim., 18, 2403–2416, 2005.; May, W.: Simulated changes o


Click To View

Additional Books

  • Experimental Study of Nonlinear Interact... (by )
  • A Top-down Model to Generate Ensembles o... (by )
  • Landau-fluid Simulations of Alfvén-wave ... (by )
  • Image-model Coupling: Application to an ... (by )
  • Bayesian Modeling and Significant Featur... (by )
  • Response of a Global Atmospheric Circula... (by )
  • Preface Nonlinear Processes in Oceanic a... (by )
  • Wavelet Filtering of Chaotic Data : Volu... (by )
  • Multimodal Structure of Baroclinic Tides... (by )
  • The Formation of Relativistic Plasma Str... (by )
  • Bifurcation Analysis of a Paradigmatic M... (by )
  • An Assessment of Bayesian Bias Estimator... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right


Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from World eBook Fair are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.