World Library  


Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Dispersion of Aerosol Particles in the Free Atmosphere Using Ensemble Forecasts : Volume 20, Issue 5 (14/10/2013)

By Haszpra, T.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0003990428
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 12
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Dispersion of Aerosol Particles in the Free Atmosphere Using Ensemble Forecasts : Volume 20, Issue 5 (14/10/2013)  
Author: Haszpra, T.
Volume: Vol. 20, Issue 5
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2013
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Citation

APA MLA Chicago

Lagzi, I., Tél, T., & Haszpra, T. (2013). Dispersion of Aerosol Particles in the Free Atmosphere Using Ensemble Forecasts : Volume 20, Issue 5 (14/10/2013). Retrieved from http://worldebookfair.org/


Description
Description: Institute of Theoretical Physics, and MTA-ELTE Research Group in Theoretical Physics, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány P. s. 1/A, Budapest, 1117, Hungary. The dispersion of aerosol particle pollutants is studied using 50 members of an ensemble forecast in the example of a hypothetical free atmospheric emission above Fukushima over a period of 2.5 days. Considerable differences are found among the dispersion predictions of the different ensemble members, as well as between the ensemble mean and the deterministic result at the end of the observation period. The variance is found to decrease with the particle size. The geographical area where a threshold concentration is exceeded in at least one ensemble member expands to a 5–10 times larger region than the area from the deterministic forecast, both for air column concentration and in the deposition field. We demonstrate that the root-mean-square distance of any particle from its own clones in the ensemble members can reach values on the order of one thousand kilometers. Even the centers of mass of the particle cloud of the ensemble members deviate considerably from that obtained by the deterministic forecast. All these indicate that an investigation of the dispersion of aerosol particles in the spirit of ensemble forecast contains useful hints for the improvement of risk assessment.

Summary
Dispersion of aerosol particles in the free atmosphere using ensemble forecasts

Excerpt
Dabberdt, W. F. and Miller, E.: Uncertainty, ensembles and air quality dispersion modeling: applications and challenges, Atmos. Environ., 34, 4667–4673, 2000.; Buizza, R., Milleer, M., and Palmer, T. N.: Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 2887–2908, 1999.; Challa, V., Indrcanti, J., Baham, J., Patrick, C., Rabarison, M., Young, J., Hughes, R., Swanier, S., Hardy, M., and Yerramilli, A.: Sensitivity of atmospheric dispersion simulations by HYSPLIT to the meteorological predictions from a meso-scale model, Environ. Fluid Mechanics, 8, 367–387, 2008.; Dop, H. V., Addis, R., Fraser, G., Girardi, F., Graziani, G., Inoue, Y., Kelly, N., Klug, W., Kulmala, A., Nodop, K., and Pretel, J.: ETEX: A Europian Tracer Experiment; observations, dispersion modelling and emergency response, Atmos. Environ., 32, 4089–4094, doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00248-9, 1998.; Galmarini, S., Bianconi, R., Bellasio, R., and Graziani, G.: Forecasting the consequences of accidental releases of radionuclides in the atmosphere from ensemble dispersion modelling, J. Environ. Radioactivity, 57, 203–219, doi:10.1016/S0265-931X(01)00017-0, 2001.; Galmarini, S., Bianconi, R., Klug, W., Mikkelsen, T., Addis, R., Andronopoulos, S., Astrup, P., Baklanov, A., Bartniki, J., Bartzis, J., Bellasio, R., Bompay, F., Buckley, R., Bouzom, M., Champion, H., D'Amours, R., Davakis, E., Eleveld, H., Geertsema, G., Glaab, H., Kollax, M., Ilvonen, M., Manning, A., Pechinger, U., Persson, C., Polreich, E., Potemski, S., Prodanova, M., Saltbones, J., Slaper, H., Sofiev, M., Syrakov, D., Sørensen, J., der Auwera, L., Valkama, I., and Zelazny, R.: Ensemble dispersion forecasting – Part I: concept, approach and indicators, Atmos. Environ., 38, 4607–4617, 2004.; Hágel, E. and Horányi, A.: The ARPEGE/ALADIN limited area ensemble prediction system: the impact of global targeted singular vectors, Meteorol. Z., 16, 653–663, 2007.; Haszpra, T. and Tél, T.: Volcanic ash in the free atmosphere: A dynamical systems approach, J. Physics: Conference Series, 333, 012008, doi:10.1088/1742-6596/333/1/012008, 2011.; Holt, T., Pullen, J., and Bishop, C. H.: Urban and ocean ensembles for improved meteorological and dispersion modeling of the coastal zone, Tellus, 61, 232–249, 2009.; Ihász, I., Üveges, Z., Mile, M., and Németh, C.: Ensemble calibration of ECMWF's medium-range forecasts, Időjárás, 114, 275–286, 2010.; Kalnay, E.: Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2003.; Lee, J. A., Peltier, L. J., Haupt, S. E., Wyngaard, J. C., Stauffner, D. R., and Deng, A.: Improving SCIPUFF dispersion forecasts with NWP ensembles, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 48, 2305–2319, 2009.; Leutbecher, M. and Palmer, T.: Ensemble forecasting, J. Comput. Phys., 227, 3515–3539, 2008.; Maxey, M. R. and Riley, J. J.: Equation of motion for a small rigid sphere in a nonuniform flow, Phys. Fluids, 26, 883–889, doi:10.1063/1.864230, 1983.; Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N., and Petroliagis, T.: The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 73–119, 1996.; Nasstrom, J. S. and Pace, J. C.: Evaluation of the effect of meteorological data resolution on L}agrangian particle dispersion simulations using the {ETEX experiment, Atmos. Environ., 32, 4187–4194, doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00180-0, 1998.; Scheele, M. P. and Siegmund, P. C.: Estimating errors in trajectory forecasts using ensemble predictions, J. Appl. Meteorol., 40, 1223–1232, 2001.; Sørensen, J. H.: Sensitivity of the DERMA long-range Gaussi

 

Click To View

Additional Books


  • Time Scale of the Largest Imaginable Mag... (by )
  • On the Scaling Characteristics of Observ... (by )
  • A Study of Magnetic Fluctuations and The... (by )
  • Phase Space Holes and Elementary Radiati... (by )
  • Fluctuations in a Quasi-stationary Shall... (by )
  • Corrigendum to Number-average Size Model... (by )
  • Passive Tracer Patchiness and Particle T... (by )
  • Prediction of Magnetic Storm Events Usin... (by )
  • Numerical Simulation of Ion Dynamics in ... (by )
  • Low-order Models of Wave Interactions in... (by )
  • Influence of Thresholding in Mass and En... (by )
  • Initial State Perturbations in Ensemble ... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right

 



Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from World eBook Fair are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.