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Enhancing Predictability by Increasing Nonlinearity in Enso and Lorenz Systems : Volume 15, Issue 5 (29/10/2008)

By Ye, Z.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003978366
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 9
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Enhancing Predictability by Increasing Nonlinearity in Enso and Lorenz Systems : Volume 15, Issue 5 (29/10/2008)  
Author: Ye, Z.
Volume: Vol. 15, Issue 5
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2008
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

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Ye, Z., & Hsieh, W. W. (2008). Enhancing Predictability by Increasing Nonlinearity in Enso and Lorenz Systems : Volume 15, Issue 5 (29/10/2008). Retrieved from http://worldebookfair.org/


Description
Description: Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. The presence of nonlinear terms in the governing equations of a dynamical system usually leads to the loss of predictability, e.g. in numerical weather prediction. However, for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, in an intermediate coupled equatorial Pacific model run under the 1961–1975 and the 1981–1995 climatologies, the latter climatology led to longer-period oscillations, thus greater predictability. In the Lorenz (1963) 3-component chaos system, by adjusting the model parameters to increase the nonlinearity of the system, a similar increase in predictability was found. Thus in the ENSO and Lorenz systems, enhanced nonlinearity from changes in the governing equations could produce longer period oscillations with increased predictability.

Summary
Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems

Excerpt
An, S.-I. and Wang, B.: Interdecadal change of the structure of the ENSO mode and its impact on the ENSO frequency, J. Climate, 13, 2044–2055, 2000.; An, S.-I.: Interdecadal changes in the El~Niño La-Niña asymmetry, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L23210, doi:10.1029/2004GL021699, 2004.; An, S.-I. and Jin, F.-F.: Nonlinearity and asymmetry of ENSO, J. Climate, 17, 2399–2412, 2004.; Bishop, C. M.: Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition, Clarendon Press, 482~pp., 1995.; Chen, D., Cane, M. A., Kaplan, A., Zebiak, S. E., and Huang, D.: Predictability of El~Niño in the past 148 years, Nature, 428, 733–736, 2004.; Basu, S. and Foufoula-Georgiou, E.: Detection of nonlinearity and chaoticity in time series using the transportation distance function, Phys. Lett. A, 301, 413–423, 2002.; Drazin, P. G.: Nonlinear Systems, Cambridge University Press, 317~pp., 1992.; Elsner, J. B. and Tsonis, A. A.: Nonlinear prediction, chaos and noise, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 73, 49–60, 1992.; Eccles, F. and Tziperman, E.: Nonlinear effects on ENSO's period, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 474–482, 2004.; Federov, A. V. and Philander, S. G.: A stability analysis of tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions: Bridging measurements and theory for El~Niño, J. Clim., 14, 3086–3101, 2001.; Hsieh, W. W.: Nonlinear multivariate and time series analysis by neural network methods, Rev. Geophys., 42, RG1003, doi:10.1029/2002RG000112, 2004.; Ji, M., Leetmaa, A., and Kousky, V. E.: Coupled model predictions of ENSO during the 1980s and the 1990s at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, J. Climate, 9, 3105–3120, 1996.; Jin, F.-F., Neelin, D., and Ghil, M.: ENSO on the devil's staircase, Science, 264, 70–72, 1994.; Kirtman, B. P. and Schopf, P. S.: Decadal variability in ENSO predictability and prediction, J. Climate, 11, 2804–2822, 1998.; Kleeman, R. and Moore, A. M.: A theory for the limitation of ENSO predictability due to stochastic atmospheric transients, J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 753–767, 1997.; Lorenz, E. N.: Deterministic non-periodic flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130–141, 1963.; Münnich, M., Cane, M. A., and Zebiak, S. E.: A study of self-excited oscillations of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system. Part II: Nonlinear cases, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 1238–1248, 1991.; Penland, C. and Sardeshmukh, P. D.:The optimal-growth of tropical sea-surface temperature anomalies, J. Climate, 8, 1999–2024, 1995.; Ye, Z. and Hsieh, W. W.: The influence of climate regime shift on ENSO, Clim. Dynam., 26, 823–833, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0105-5, 2006.; Ye, Z. and Hsieh, W. W.: Changes in ENSO and associated overturning circulations from enhanced greenhouse gases by the end of the 20th century, J. Climate, 21, 5745–5763, doi:10.1175-2008JCLI1580.1, 2008.; Zebiak, S. E. and Cane, M. A.: A model El~Niño-Southern Oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2262–2278, 1987.; Zebiak, S. E.: On the 30–60-day oscillation and the prediction of El~Niño, J. Climate, 2, 1381–1387, 1989.

 

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